log using analysis.log, replace

*
* a n a l y s i s . d o
*
* Stata .do file to conduct analysis in FPC monograph.
*
*     do: analysis.do
*    log: analysis.log
*  input: fpc.dta
*

*
* week 116 is start of Iraq War
*


set more off

use fpc

desc

summ

corr

*
* code Iraq approval as 0 if before start of war
*

gen iraq2 = iraq
replace iraq2 = 0 if(week <= 115)
label variable iraq2 "Bush Iraq War approval"

*
* code dummy; 1 from start of Iraq war
*

gen dirqwar = (week >= 116)

*
* convert rally variables so range from 0 to 1
*

foreach var of varlist wtc-karzai {
	egen m`var' = max(`var')
	gen p`var' = `var'/m`var'
	drop m`var'
}

*
* convention bounce for Bush (month of September)
*

gen repcon = ((week >= 192) & (week <= 196))


**********************************
* Table 2. Bush approval on Iraq *
**********************************

*
* "regular" approval equation
*

arima iraq totbd piraqwar-pprisoner if(week >= 116), ar(1)

*
* add impact of Republican Convention
*

arima iraq totbd piraqwar-pprisoner repcon if(week >= 116), ar(1)

****************************************************
* Table 3. Bush overall job approval: pre-Iraq War *
****************************************************

*
* include rdi per capits
*

arima approve rdpipcly totbd pwtc-ppowell if (week < 116), ar(1)

*
* exclude rdi per capita
*

arima approve          totbd pwtc-ppowell if (week < 116), ar(1)


***************************************************************
* Table 4. Bush overall job approval: since start of Iraq War *
***************************************************************

*
* include rdi per capita
*

arima approve rdpipcly totbd piraqwar-pkarzai if(week >= 116), ar(1 12)

*
* exclude rdi per capita
*

arima approve          totbd piraqwar-pkarzai if(week >= 116), ar(1 12)

*
* exclude rdi per capita, include Republican convention
*

arima approve          totbd piraqwar-pkarzai repcon if(week >= 116), ar(1 12)

*
* create log10 of battle deaths
*

gen l10totbd = log10(totbd)
label variable l10totbd "Log of Total Battle Deaths"

*************************
* Bush approval on Iraq *
*************************

*
* "regular" equation with log10 bd
*

arima iraq l10totbd piraqwar-pprisoner if(week >= 116), ar(1)

*
* add Republican Convention with log10 bd
*

arima iraq l10totbd piraqwar-pprisoner repcon if(week >= 116), ar(1)

******************************************************
* Bush overall job approval: since start of Iraq War *
******************************************************

*
* include rdi per capita
*

arima approve rdpipcly l10totbd piraqwar-pkarzai if(week >= 116), ar(1 12)

*
* exclude rdi per capita
*

arima approve          l10totbd piraqwar-pkarzai if(week >= 116), ar(1 12)

*
* exclude rdi per capita, include Republican convention
*

arima approve          l10totbd piraqwar-pkarzai repcon if(week >= 116), ar(1 12)

*