Political Science 572

Foreign Policy Decision Making

Fall 2005

Mr. Stoll

W 1:30 - 4:30
HB 423

Office: 202 BB, x3362

Office Hours:

  • Tu 1:00 - 2:00
  • We 10:00 - 11:00
  • Fr 2:00 - 3:00

    • INTRODUCTION

    Poli 572 will focus on foreign policy decision making, broadly defined. We will survey the social scientific literature on this topic, seeking to understand what has (and has not) been done on this topic. The primary goal of the course is for you to successfully execute a quantitative research project on foreign policy decision making.

    GRADING

  • 20% Written assignments
  • 20% Class participation
  • 20% Midterm exam
  • 40% Final paper

    • BOOKS AND READINGS

    I have not ordered any books for purchase. You might find it useful to buy:

    Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2002. Predicting Politics. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press.

    The bulk of the reading for the course will consist of articles and book chapters. Students will have a major responsibility in the selection of weekly readings.

    SPECIAL NEEDS

    Any student with a documented disability needing academic adjustments or accommodations is requested to contact me as soon as possible, preferably during the first two weeks of class. All discussions will remain confidential. Students with disabilities need to also also contact Rice Disability Student Services in room 122 of the Ley Student Center [713-348-]5841; adarice@rice.edu). Fax: (713) 348 - 5199. If calling from a TTY/TDD, dial 711 or 800-735-2989 to be connected through a relay operator.

    YOUR RESPONSIBILITIES

    It goes without saying (but I will say it anyway) that all students are expected to attend and participate in all seminar sessions. And I am sure we all understand that it is important that all comments (even very critical ones) are made in a civil manner.

    Below, I have indicated the set of topics to be considered, and given tentative reading assignments. However, it is likely that changes will be made to the set of readings. Also, after the first class session or so, I will expect that each student will locate a current journal article on the general topic for discussion. I am inclined to be a bit flexible on the definition of "current." If at all possible, the article should contain some quantitative analysis (so that you can see how such studies are done). I am more than willing to help you selecting an article. You need to identify the article and get my OK to use it no later than Monday, 11 AM of the week of class. You also need to provide me with a 2 page summary of the article no later than Tuesday, 4 PM of the week of class. You will also be expected to give a short summary of the article (and answer questions about it) during class. Finally, you will be expected to ask questions of your classmates when they give their summaries. I will pass out some guidelines for what should be contained in the summaries. Note that it is not critical that the article be "great." Even a bad article can provide you with a good idea. Why do I have you do this? Because one of the first steps in any research project is to cast about for the relevant work, read it, and evaluate it. So I see this as not only giving all of us a brief overview of a lot of research, but as a way for you to hone a very valuable skill.

    Your paper must involve statistical analysis. I have nothing against other approaches to doing research (and at one point or another I have used almost everything). But I feel that it is important that all of you develop the ability to execute a quantitative research project. A professor of mine (John Mueller in case you're interested) once told me that doing quantitative research is a craft. He is absolutely right. Taking your methods skills and actually applying them to a real dataset to answer questions of interest to you is quite difficult. The best way to become good at it is to practice. And the best way to practice is to write papers. I can assure you that everyone who does this type of research is embarrassed by his or her first few efforts. The reason is simple: your first few papers are lousy. Doing it well is not so much a matter of natural intelligence (you are all smart); it is a matter of learning by doing. So that is what we will do in this course.

    I do not expect everyone in the class to use the most sophisticated possible methods. First of all, there are times when these methods are simply inappropriate for the question at hand. Second of all, you have different backgrounds and skill sets. So while I want each of you to extend yourselves on this paper, I will tailor the methods not only to the topic you pursue, but to your background and skills.

    You will actually do work on your paper throughout the course. Every couple of weeks you will be expected to turn in an assignment that represents a step forward on your paper. The first step will be for you to provide me with a topic; succeeding steps will move you down the road to a complete paper. The paper itself will be due Wednesday December 14.

    A word to the wise for those of you who do not have a lot of experience with quantitative research: it is hard. Just locating the appropriate raw data can be difficult. And I guarantee that, no matter what you think, there will be a lot more to the analysis than a single regression or whatever. I will urge you to begin to locate the information you will need to do your analysis well before the time you are ready to begin. It would be wise for you to assume that there are good reasons for this and that just maybe I know more about this than you do.

    I am also giving a midterm. The midterm will contain questions that are similar to those that I prepare for the prelim exams.

    I encourage you to see me in my office and/or to e-mail me throughout the course. I am always happy to talk about the research process in general or specific issues relating to your work.

    OUTLINE OF TOPICS

    Aug. 24 Introductory Meeting

    Aug 31. 21 IR Theory and Foreign Policy. We will review some of the main approaches to the study of international relations and consider how the study of foreign policy decision making fits into each.
    Realism Cusack, Thomas and Richard J. Stoll. 1990. Exploring Realpolitik. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, ch. 2
    Neorealism Mearsheimer, John. 2001. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: Norton, ch. 1-3.
    Neoliberalism Keohane, Robert and Joseph Nye. 2001. Power and Interdependence. Third Edition. New York: Longman, ch. 1-3.
    World System Theory Modern History Sourcebook. 2002. Summary of Wallerstein on World System Theory.
    Constructivism Wendt, Alexander. 1994. Collective Identity Formation and the International State. American Political Science Review 88: 384-396.

    Sep. 7 Frameworks for the Study of Foreign Policy. There have been some efforts to devise general frameworks for the study of foreign policy. We will review these efforts, paying particular attention to how decision making is conceptualized.

    Sep. 14 Individuals and Foreign Policy Decision Making. While much of the research on individuals is of a traditional nature, there is some work that has been done in a social scientific manner. Sep. 21 Small Groups. As with individuals, there is some social scientific work on the role of small groups in foreign policy decision making. Sep. 28 Organizations. The word "organization" is used here in a broad sense. It does include bureaucracies, but it is also meant to cover the study of large groups (in and out of the government) that play a role in foreign policy decision making. Oct. 5 The State Level. The state level encompasses both approaches that treat decision making as a single "black box" and those that assume that one or a small handful of state-level characteristics can predict a state's foreign policy behavior. Oct. 12 No class.

    Oct. 19 Domestic Factors. The phrase "domestic factors" is meant to denote influences on foreign policy decision making that are both subnational and external to the government (executive branch).

    Oct. 26 Midterm

    Nov. 2 Bargaining/Two-Level Games. While bargaining theory is at the dyadic level of analysis, foreign policy decision making can be viewed as "two sides" of the process. The phrase "two level games" comes from Putnam's 1988 International Organization piece, in which he argued that when two states bargain, each not only has to bargain with the other, but also with domestic elements within the state.

    Nov. 9 Crises. There is an immense literature on crisis decision making, ranging from personal accounts by decision makers, to abstract formal models. The focus will be on reviewing the systematic empirical efforts to study crisis decision making, and how it can be improved. Nov. 16 Arms Races and Military Buildups. Although it seems quaint in the post-Cold War era (at least for the United States) there was a time in which a great deal of effort was spent studying military buildups and arms races. Nov. 23 Small States. There is a strong bias in the IR literature towards the study of significant and powerful states. While the point is often not explicit, many scholars appear to thing either (a) small states don't matter, (b) we can apply what we learn from the study of large states to small states. But it is important to look into what has been specifically written about small states, and to consider whether we need to develop new ideas and new models to understand their foreign policy. Nov. 30 Economic Policy. The focus of the IR program at Rice is on the study of armed conflict. But we need to consider some aspects of foreign policy that do not involve conflict. It is not possible to do this in a complete fashion, but we will discuss work on foreign economic policy and think about how it can (and cannot) be used as a source of ideas for the study of foreign policy decision making in the context of conflict.